Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Oscar Talk

Life of Pi

We are in the middle of the events and I don’t really want to get behind it. So here’s an update. Even if I haven’t seen the majority of the following films, it is very likely that the films I'll be mentioning here will be the main films featuring in the Oscars, next year. A few unknown names can come in and a few others will get behind, but this is pretty much it.
So let's start with the main category:

Best Picture

The Master
The Silver Lining Playbook
Moonrise Kingdom

Beats of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Les Misèrables

And a few other that might change the places a little:
Zero Dark Thirty
Promised Land
Anna Karenina
The Darj Knight Rises

And then it starts to be way too hard. The number of films for Best Picture stays in nine, not ten. So, there's also that curiousity. "Amour" may also be left just for the Best Foreign Language Film, which gives another place for others.

Now, the performances.
Best Actor

The Safe 3
Joaquin Phoenix
Daniel Day Lewis
John Hawkes

Bradley Cooper
He could also be a safe bet, but there are these three guys coming strong too:
Jean -Louis Trintignant
Hugh Jackman
Denzel Washington
Here's my take on Denzel Washington - Sure he is consistent, sure he's always good but it still feels like he's playing the same role over and over again.
Richard Gere

Other possible spoilers included, but no one has seen much yet.
Matt Damon
Anthony Hopkins
Other very unlikely to succeed, but there are always Golden Globes.

Jack Black
Bill Murray

Best Supporting Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tommy Lee Jones
Robert Deniro
Alan Arkin

Will there be a chance for new guys?
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Dwight Henry, for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Nate Parker, for Arbitrage
Ezra Miller, for The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Other known names that might come up:
Russel Crowe, Les Misèrables
Hal Halbrook, Promised Land
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
Bryan Cranston, Argo
Guy Pearce, Lawless
Mark Strong, Zero Dark Thirty

The fact that the Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role isn't already a locked case, like let's say, Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood, and so on, it's always an interesting case. But maybe this will be Joaquin Phoenix year.
Finally, I think Hoffman will be taking home his second gold statue, for Best Supporting Actor.

Best Actress

This would be a beautiful and pleasant line up: all these different generations and races.
Jennifer Lawrence
Marion Cotillard
Keira Knightley
Emmanuelle Riva
Quvenzhané Wallace

Then we have these other names:
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock - no one has seen it yet, and I'm not sure if it might be considered a supporting role.
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea - too unlikely, very few people saw the film.
Maggie Smith, Quartet - a safer bet for a supporting role in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - very unlikely.
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs - "For breathing", good one Kris Tapley! Very unlikely, one hopes. But a safe Golden Globe nom.
Melanie Lynskey - because I just felt like mentioning. Since no one is doing it.
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty - this may as well be a supporting role, but no one knows because no one has seen the film.
Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz - not her year.
Elizabeth Olsen, Therese Ranquin - some mentioned her, but there are no official stills and much less a trailer yet. The film's release date is for late December.

And a new entry: 
Emayatzi Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere - Really crazy thought, when there's already another black contender in the same category. Weird thought, isn't it?

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathway
Helen Hunt
Sally Field
Amy Adams
Maggie Smith
These above being the safe bets.

Then these other names can come in:
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Ann Dowd, Compliance - the outsider that could surprise.
Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
Jacki Weaver, The Silver Lining Playblook
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Samantha Barks, Les Misèrables
Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Rebel Wilson, Pitch Perfect - someone (Guy Lodge) mentioned her and I think it's cool! Sort of the Melissa McCarthy version of this year?
Emily Blunt, Looper - awesome that someone mentioned it too.
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice - people should mentioning this one too.

My gut tells me that this is Anne Hathway's year but I hear her role is very small, she only has one song. It may or may not be a problem.

Side Note: The actors of Beasts of the Southern Wild are ineligible for the SAG Awards. Basically because they're amateur? Or in other words, because the film was not made under the terms of SAG Low Budget Feature Agreement, which mandante the use of professional actors. This situation obviously doesn't help them. 

Now, news from international waters:
It's now official, the number of films submitted for consideration as a Best Foreign Language Film is set at 71. I guess it's a new record, being the longest in the category's history. Kenya submitted a film for the first time ever. Here are the top contenders:

Amour, from Austria, just so you know. 
A Royal Affair, Denmark
Lore, Autralia
No, Chile
The Intouchables, France
War Witch, Canada
Barbara, Germany
Beyond the Hills, Romania
Our Children, Belgium
Kon-Tiki, Norway
Sister, Switzerland
Fill the Void, Israel

Now, my comments about the host.
Seth MacFarlane

Seth MacFarlane to host this year’s Academy Awards.
“Just bring Ellen again! She was awesome”, this is an interesting comment. Why not someone like Lena Dunham? I say. She’s the girl of the moment, and she's funny, witty, insightful, isn't she? Wow, I just thought of Nick Offerman and his wife Megan, now that would be a very unusual choice! Oscars don't deserve this quality.
My first thoughts about this news were pretty much blank, followed by the fact that he’s friends (dating) with Emilia Clarke. The fact that he’s completely unknown to so many people around the world, even including his success with Stewie and Ted, may turn out either a great thing or a complete fail. My sister didn't had a clue of who he was and she knows Hollywood, I would say she's part of average Oscar's audience. 
He’s the guy about filthy jokes (who isn't?). He’s also the guy who knows a lot about films and everything in general related to films. That’s what I’ve been gathering. I don’t really know why the decision. The world wide success is surely one of the reasons, but also the fact that Hugh Jackman wasn’t available was the other reason. All I know is that the chance he had to show work, when presenting something at the Emmys, was a huge fail. But then again, he has plenty of time to rehearse. Right now, I’m actually thinking positive about this, mainly because it is a different choice, a different approach. Or is it? Maybe a bit out of place, and that surely has to be a positive thing. Because are the expectations too high or just blank? Either way, it can turn out to be a modest success or part of yet another failure, which is nothing we are not used to. Obviously, he will be no Hugh Jackman, no one can overcome him, because he’s Hugh Jackman (and he waited so long!)
Now I have to see him on SNL and I have to see Ted, which just became an Oscar film, without being an Oscar film. He’s an atheist, so the jokes about The Master, Life of Pi will be interesting. He’s a man of many voices, so the Lincoln voice will be a theme for a possible act. What else?
I already saw him hosting SNL and I enjoyed it. I liked the monologue and I really laughed at a couple of other sketches. And by the way, I really like his voice.

Ryan Lochte: “Oh man, it feels so weird to be dry”. 
That's a good one!

I don't remember what else I had in mind, so I think I'm done for now. See ya.

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